The Labour Market Effects of Insurance for Disability Supports: Evidence from the National Disability Insurance Scheme in Australia | JMP
Abstract
This paper studies the labour market effects of funding for disability-related supports, using evidence from the large-scale roll-out of Australia’s National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). Leveraging a staggered difference-in-differences design, I find that the reform on average increased affected participants’ total annual earnings by 11.1% of the pre-treatment outcome in the four years following exposure. Receipt of income-replacement benefits declined, consistent with the findings on increased earnings. The labour market effects, however, are highly heterogeneous: earnings gains are driven almost entirely by participants with prior labour force attachment, while those with no employment history remain unaffected. Using a novel administrative dataset on granular funding allocations and NDIS survey outcomes, I provide evidence that the NDIS in- creased economic participation primarily through indirect channels such as by reducing care constraints and increasing autonomy, rather than through direct channels such as employment or training programmes.
Award: Best PhD Paper Award, Swiss Society of Health Economics Workshop 2025
Presented at: OECD WiP Seminar 2025; SGGÖ 2025; Melbourne Institute Seminar 2025; UZH Empirical Micro Seminar 2025; National Disability Insurance Agency 2024
About Me
Hello! I am a PhD candidate in Economics at the University of Zurich, specialising in applied microeconomics. My research encompasses topics in labour economics, health economics and public policy.
During the 2024/25 academic year I visited the Department of Economics at The University of Melbourne. I hold an MSc in Economics from the University of Amsterdam and have worked at the OECD, De Nederlandsche Bank (the Dutch central bank) and the Australian Department of Jobs. In another life, I worked as a community pharmacist - I also hold a BSc in Pharmacy from Monash University.
I am on the 2025/26 job market.
Published Papers
Individual Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy Announcements
Authors: Jakob de Haan, Kostas Mavromatis, and Garyn Tan
Published in: Economics Letters (2020)
Abstract: Using a decomposition of US monetary policy shocks and inflation forecasts from Consensus Economics, we find that information and monetary policy shocks move inflation expectations in opposite directions. Better performing forecasters appear less reliant on the informational content of announcements.
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Improving Uptake and Sustainability of Sanitation Interventions in Timor-Leste: A Case Study
Authors: Naomi Clarke, Clare Dyer, Salvador Amara, Susana Vaz Nery, and Garyn Tan
Published in: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (2021)
Abstract: Open defecation (OD) is still a significant public health challenge worldwide. In Timor-Leste, where an estimated 20% of the population practiced OD in 2017, increasing access and use of improved sanitation facilities is a government priority. Community-led total sanitation (CLTS) has become a popular strategy to end OD since its inception in 2000, but evidence on the uptake of CLTS and related interventions and the long-term sustainability of OD-free (ODF) communities is limited. This study utilized a mixed-methods approach, encompassing quantitative monitoring and evaluation data from water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) agencies, and semi-structured interviews with staff working for these organizations and the government Department of Environmental Health, to examine sanitation interventions in Timor-Leste. Recommendations from WASH practitioners on how sanitation strategies can be optimized to ensure ODF sustainability are presented. Whilst uptake of interventions is generally good in Timor-Leste, lack of consistent monitoring and evaluation following intervention delivery may contribute to the observed slippage back to OD practices. Stakeholder views suggest that long-term support and monitoring after ODF certification are needed to sustain ODF communities.
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Working Papers
Beyond the Zero Lower Bound: Negative Policy Rates and Bank Lending
Author: Garyn Tan
Published in: DNB Working Paper, De Nederlandsche Bank (2019)
Abstract: How do banks operate in a negative policy rate environment? Bank profitability is threatened by policy rate cuts in negative territory because the zero lower bound on retail deposit rates prevents banks from benefiting from cheaper deposit funding costs. Contrary to some earlier research, this paper finds that banks most affected by negative rates through this retail deposits channel increase their lending relative to less affected banks. The response is limited to mortgage lending, and is driven by banks with high household deposit ratios and banks with high overnight deposit ratios. Overall, net interest margins are unaffected, which implies that the volume effect is large enough to offset the adverse impact on bank profitability. However, the positive effect on lending dissipates as negative rates persist. This suggests that although the" reversal rate" has not been breached, it may creep up over time as banks become more limited in their options to maintain profit margins. The results also point to an important role for bank capitalisation–net interest margins of relatively highly capitalised banks are squeezed, whereas the net interest margins of less capitalised banks are unaffected. This can be explained by differences in capacity for shock absorbency.
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Work in Progress
Youth Mental Health and Outcomes in Adulthood
Authors: Ida Lykke Kristiansen and Garyn Tan
Status: In progress
Description: We study how experiences of mental health conditions in youth affect economic
and health outcomes in early adulthood. Using administrative data on psychiatric diagnoses to identify children with depression, we examine how the
approval of the first drug indicated to treat childhood depression altered outcomes as adults. We document a large earnings penalty of childhood depression – however we find no significant evidence that greater access to antidepressants in childhood helped to close the earnings gap. We do find significant effects on health. Affected cohorts are less likely to be taking short-term treatments like benzodiazipines, have more overall interaction with the psychiatric healthcare system, and have fewer visits to the ER. We provide some evidence that these effects
are unlikely to be driven by compositional changes in socioeconomic status or
depression severity of the childhood depression group.
Slides available on request
Worker Re-Allocation and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires
Authors: Josef Zweimüller, Andreas Mueller and Garyn Tan
Status: Paper in preparation
Description: Using Austrian administrative data from 1976 to 2019, we investigate the wage cyclicality of new hires and the role of worker-reallocation. Using AKM decompositions of the wage changes of new hires, we document a substantial role for firm effects in the wage cyclicality of new hires – that is, workers allocate to lower-paying firms during downturns. However, we find evidence of residual cyclicality in the wages of new hires from unemployment, even after accounting for reallocation effects. Finally, we reconcile the wage cyclicality literature with the worker reallocation literature by showing the conditions of equivalence between cyclical reallocation and the firm component of wage changes.
On-going work